Republished with the permission of Jim Stanford, Director of the Centre for Future Work
December 7, 2025
A report from the Centre for Future Work presents new research on the ongoing decline of fossil fuel employment in Canada, and strategies for managing that decline more effectively and fairly. The report, Worker Voice and Effective Transitions for Fossil Fuel Workers in Canada (by Jim Stanford and Kathy Bennett), also asks fossil fuel workers what sorts of supports they want as this decline continues, and lays out best practices to avoid unemployment during the transition.
Key findings of the report include:
- There were 177,000 jobs in direct fossil fuel work in Canada in 2024 (including oil and gas, coal, petroleum refining, pipelines, natural gas distribution, and the share of electricity generation tied to fossil fuel combustion). That is just under 1% of total payroll employment.
- Fossil fuel employment declined by 38,000 jobs over the previous ten years (mostly in upstream oil and gas) – despite a 35% increase in Canadian oil production, and a 24% increase in natural gas production.
- This long-term decline is set to continue for many reasons, not solely or mostly climate policy. New technologies, economic forces, resource depletion, and corporate outsourcing strategies are all eliminating fossil fuel jobs.
- Fossil fuel workers are older than average; most will reach normal retirement age before 2050 (when Canada has committed to achieving a net-zero economy).
- Most fossil fuel workers surveyed in the report acknowledge that employment in their industry will decline in coming decades. However, they are reasonably optimistic that pro-active planning and supports can manage that decline without mass displacement.
- The strongest findings from surveys and interviews with fossil fuel workers include: very strong interest in early retirement programs as the most appealing transition program; and greater confidence in trade unions (rather than companies or governments) to negotiate and enforce binding commitments around employment transitions.
The paper concludes with 8 recommendations for strengthening employment transition programs in the future, tied to long-run emissions reduction policies, resource depletion, and technological change.
In short, an employment transition away from fossil fuel jobs is occurring, and occurring quickly. Regardless of the twists and turns of climate policy debates, that decline will continue, driven by deeper economic and technological factors. The choice for Canadians is not whether a shift away from fossil fuel work will occur, but how we will manage it.
The new report comes as Canadian politicians start another major debate over new oil and gas pipelines. Even building a new pipeline won’t reverse the long-run decline in fossil fuel jobs. To be sure, building a pipeline creates medium-term construction work – but no more than equivalent amounts spent on other energy investments (like wind and solar energy, transmission lines, energy retrofits of buildings, or public transit). And the historic decline in direct fossil fuel employment will continue anyway.
Please see the full report here: https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Transitions-for-Fossil-Fuel-Workers.pdf
The report’s findings and implications will be discussed further in a one-hour webinar, on Wednesday December 10 a 1:00 pm Eastern (10:00 am Pacific). In addition to the report co-authors, speakers at the webinar will include:
- John Woodside, Ottawa Bureau Chief for Canada’s National Observer (moderator).
- Jessica McCormick, President of the Newfoundland & Labrador Federation of Labour.
- Megan Gordon, Manager of Equitable Transition for the Pembina Institute.
Registration for the webinar is free but essential, here.
By Jim Stanford
Jim Stanford is Economist and Director of the Centre for Future Work, based in Vancouver, Canada. Jim is one of Canada’s best-known economic commentators. He served for over 20 years as Economist and Director of Policy with Unifor, Canada’s largest private-sector trade union.
The original article was published here on the Centre for Future Work website.
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